• 0 Posts
  • 21 Comments
Joined 2 years ago
cake
Cake day: June 12th, 2023

help-circle




  • Well maybe one person is a little bit more impressed by some pretty pictures than another person. I really don’t see what that has to do with a company like Microsoft putting their money into this? They don’t make songs or movie trailers.

    To me I’m stunned but that’s just me, on top of this we’re only in year like 5 of AI going mainstream, where will it be in 10 years? 20 years?

    This is a common trap a lot of people fall into. See what improvements have been made the last couple of years, who knows where it will end up right? Unfortunately, reality doesn’t work like that. Improvements made in the past don’t guarantee improvements will continue in the future. There are ceilings that can be run into and are hard to break. There can even be hard limits that are impossible to break. There might be good reasons to not further develop promising technologies from the past into the future. There is no such thing as infinite growth.

    Edit:

    Just checked out that song, man that song is shit…

    “My job vanished without lift.” What does that even mean? That’s not even English.

    And that’s just one of the dozens of issues I’ve seen in 30 secs. You are kidding yourself if you think this is the future, that’s one shit future bro.


  • This is just overly dramatic sensationalism from the press.

    1. Boeing doesn’t make the engines.
    2. This plane was well over 25 years old, so built way before Boeing had the recent issues.
    3. Without knowing what the issue was, who knows what happened? Bad maintenance, a fuckup when preparing the plane, a bird strike?
    4. The plane was perfectly fine, it diverted, landed normally and safely and nobody was unsafe at any point. The term “emergency landing” sounds very dramatic, but it often isn’t.
    5. The plane went on to fly to Dusseldorf the next day and is scheduled to return to service on the 23th.

    There are so many planes flying and they have issues all the time. The article isn’t very good as it doesn’t say when this happened, but it appears to have happened on the 16th. But images of flames from an engine and panicked passengers make for a juicy story, so they went with it.


  • What’s your point?

    Sure that’s the point of venture capital, throwing some money at the wall and see what sticks. You’d expect to have most of them fail, but the one good one makes up for it.

    However in this case it isn’t people throwing some money at startups. It’s large companies like Microsoft throwing trillions into this new tech. And not just the one company looking for a little niche to fill, all of them are all in, flooding the market with random shit.

    Uber and Spotify are maybe not the best examples to use, although they are examples of people throwing away money in hopes of some sort of payoff (even though they both made a small profit recently, but nowhere near digging themselves out of the hole). They are however problematic in the way they operate. Uber’s whole deal is exploiting workers, turning employees into contractors just to exploit them. And also skirting regulations around taxis for the most part. They have been found to be illegal in a lot of civilised countries and had to change the way they do business there, limit their services or not operate in those countries at all. Spotify is music and the music industry is a whole thing I won’t get into.

    The current AI bubble isn’t comparable to venture capital investing in some startups. It’s more comparable to the dotcom bubble, where the industry is perceived to move in a certain direction. Either companies invest heavily and get with the times, or they die. And smart investors put their money in anything with the new tech, since that’s where the money is going to be made. Back then the new tech was the internet, now the new tech is AI. We found out the hard way, it was total BS. The internet wasn’t the infinite money glitch people thought it was and we all paid the price.

    However the scale of that bubble was small as compared to this new AI bubble. And the internet was absolutely a trans-formative technology, changing the way we work and live forever. It’s too early to say if this LLM based “AI” technology will do the same, but I doubt it. The amount of BS thrown around these days is too high. As someone with a somewhat good grasp of how LLMs actually work on a fundamental level, the promised made aren’t backed up by facts. And the amount of money being put into this aren’t near any even optimistic payoff in the future.

    If you want to throw in a simple, over simplified example: This AI boom is more like people throwing money at Theranos than anything else.




  • The thing that really pisses me off sometimes is that even if this current “AI” shit somehow morphs into something resembling true AGI and is able to take over a whole lot of jobs, that’s not a good thing! That’s not something anybody should want at all. It means flooding the job market with a whole lot of folk, with skills that are no longer valid (since the AI can do it). Maybe some people keep their jobs and are more of a supervisor kind of thing to the AI or can work alongside the AI somehow, but a big number of people simply won’t have jobs anymore and can’t be easily employed again. We currently have no social structures in place to deal with this situation, it would be absolutely terrible. Furthermore as the AI thing can work 24/7 with no breaks, no vacation, no sickness and only requires energy, the value of the work being done goes down by a lot. So even the people that are still employed would need to compete and wages would inevitably drop. Do we honestly expect all the CEOs, owners and other rich folk to suddenly have a change of heart and start sharing their wealth? Not very likely I think. All that money they intend to make they will keep for themselves. They pay millions for accountants, tax specialists and lawyers, in order to not pay any taxes. They hate poor people, they hate social systems, they just want all the money for themselves. But even they will in the end be betrayed, since with the job market crashing, the economy will also crash. It doesn’t matter how cheap you can produce the products with AI, if there isn’t anyone with money to buy shit.

    Now personally I don’t think the current AI shit can do those things. It’s all marketing hype and a big inflated bubble which will pop in the next few years. LLMs are deeply flawed and can never become anything resembling AGI. But like, why are we even trying. It’s Pandora’s box and we need to keep a lid on it. Our current world is ruled by capitalism and that won’t do well if labour is suddenly basically free.

    I just can’t help but think to myself: “Humans need not apply







  • Thorry84@feddit.nltomemes@lemmy.worldi made it
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    15
    ·
    6 days ago

    Ah yes that moment when the email comes in saying a game from your wishlist is on sale. You’ve been waiting for two years for the $39.99 game to drop in price. Damn, $7.99, still too much. I guess I’ll wait a little bit longer till it drops further and I can afford it.

    And that one game that’s been $24.99 for as long as you’ve wanted it, staring you in the face. Maybe someday, maybe…


  • There is another factor in this which often gets overlooked. A LOT of the money invested right now is for the Nvidia chips and products based around them. As many gamers are painfully aware, these chips devalue very quickly. With the progress of technology moving so fast, what was once a top of the line unit gets outclassed by mid tier hardware within a couple of years. After 5 years it’s usefulness is severely diminished and after 10 years it is hardly worth the energy to run them.

    This means the window for return on investment is a lot shorter than usual in tech. For example when creating a software service, there would be an upfront investment for buying the startup that created the software. Then some scaling investment in infrastructure and such. But after that it turns into a steady state where the input of money is a lot lower than revenue from the customer base that was grown. This allows to get returns on investment for many years after that initial investment and growth phase.

    With this Ai shit it works a bit different. If you want to train and run the latest models in order to remain competitive in the market, you would need to continually buy the latest hardware from Nvidia. As soon as you start running on older hardware, your product would be left behind and with all the competition out there users would be lost very quickly. It’s very hard to see how the trillions of dollars invested now are ever going to be recovered within the span of five years. Especially in a time where so much companies are dumping their products for very low prices and sometimes even for free.

    This bubble has to burst and it is going to be bad. For the people who were around when the dotcom bubble burst, this is going to be much worse than that ever was.




  • Are you referring to the red ring of death on the Xbox? Because that has absolutely nothing to do with ATI. They just made the chips, it’s Microsoft that put them on the board. Most of the issues were caused by a poor connection between the chip and the board, not a hell of a lot ATI could do about that.

    A lot of it was engineers underestimating the effect of thermals between 80 and 95 degrees for very long times, with cool down cycles in between. The thinking was this was just fine and wouldn’t be an issue. It turned out it was an issue, so they learnt from that and later generations didn’t really have that issue.