Oh fair. I wouldn’t trust a Trump ran casino either.

I mean, no. There’s a possibility of winning at a casino no matter how small. You can’t win in USA because even if you bet on a factory, ICE is gonna come and rape your employees. So, no. Your odds are much much better in a casino. Hell, with what Trump is doing I’d say he makes a casino look like investing.

Probably. It’s hard to say since so much is behind the veil. In fact it’s likely China has its own DUV lithography supply. US estimates on what China can produced based on number of asml units sold is wildly wrong.

I don’t think you realize it, but your proving my point. I never said no Huawei chips would be sold. I said China wants to reach criticality with it’s users. With Huawei chips being more expensive and less capable, the big boys won’t buy Huawei. And the secondary market doesn’t matter to the big boys who will get it at MSRP because orders always go to them first. Since they have the most users and will have the most exposure for stress testing.

The last thing China wants is for Huawei to only sell to smaller companies and start ups where it’s entirely possible there will be no users and money wasted. That’s why the new law only targets the major companies.

*Edit on that point I’m going to predict the future now. In a few months we’re going to see an article saying China has bought record amounts of H20s and NVIDIA’s stocks are going to go up again. This is because the smaller companies are still going to be buying and at MSRP because the big boys can’t.

The problem is the Chinese chips are not cheaper. Huawei’s 910c is about 30% slower and 1/3 more expensive. Add on top of that a lack of software, without government force, who would buy it?

You’re right about that, BUT I’d argue that’s all small potatoes. If no one develops on Chinese chips, then they’ll never actually be competitive. The only way for China to push ahead in any capacity, or even to catch up is to have thousands of users on their chipsets.

Let’s look at the MooreThreads MTT80. When it started it was performing like a 2017 GPU GT1030. They did 0 hardware upgrades. I will repeat that 0 hardware upgrades. But today, it’s able to run the domestic game Black Myth WuKong at 4k at 40 fps. Yes I realize that means it stutters, but with no hardware changes they were able to make a fairly demanding modern game playable. What this has rang through out China I am sure is, China has to do everything on earth to fix their software. If that means banning NVIDIA, so be it.

Exactly right! This why China is banning the chips. They caught up in hardware and now need to catch up in software. If they continue to allow people to use NVIDIA chips, then their software will never progress as they won’t have users to optimize them.