He says if Trump continues deporting immigrants at the current rate, inflation will go from 2.5% to somewhere close to 4% “by the time it hits its peak early next year.”
Zandi says his stark prediction is based on recent inflation data. “Foreign-born labor force is declining, and the overall labor force has gone flat since the beginning of the year,” he added. “That’s causing tightening in a lot of markets, adding to costs and inflation.”
This assumes his deportation figures are accurate. I doubt they’re deporting 750 people/day.
In order to deport lots and lots of people you actually need other undocumented folks to tattle on the actual bad guys. Except when you deport everyone (including US citizens) you don’t get those tattlers anymore. Instead, you get neighborhoods and sometimes entire cities worth of people who will not help ICE in the slightest.
Biden averaged 742 a day without being insane about it… 750 isn’t shit when you’ve thrown all the money in the country at it… (sigh)
not 4% annually, 4% per month.
[x] to doubt. Mostly because I sincerely doubt inflation will “peak” at 4%.
Inflation numbers are already higher than expected. Can’t imagine that it’s going to be a rosy outlook for inflation over the next few years, or at the very least I wouldn’t count on the numbers going down any time soon. Trump won’t get his interest rate cut like he wanted so I fully anticipate he will continue to play tariff chicken with the rest of the world and by the time the fucker leaves office the economy will be in a goddamn ruin and the right will get to blame whoever swoops in to clean up the mess again.
No no. You misunderstood. They’re going to peek at it at 4% then promptly ignore it going higher.
deleted by creator
We’re already going to hit that when the companies run out of domestic stock, and the tariff increases hit - this is just starting now.
oh no, small farms will go bankrupt and have to sell to larger farms that Trump’s friends own… Oops, what an accidental bribe!
Trump’s “friends” – His only known document friend hung himself in prison, allegedly.
It’s so funny, because it means it will raise wages. I will never understand why these people wont just be honest. Economists will go to whatever lengths necessary to avoid making a class analysis.
increased wages leads to inflation, according to the rules of capitalist profit accumulation. Its what happened during covid, when so many people died the “surplus population” that keeps wage growth stagnant was depleted by a meaningful degree. Wages went up, then inflation followed. And we saw that most of that inflation was just companies raising prices so they could make more money.
Obviously the mass deportation of workers is an act of class war, and should be fought against. But it will increase profits for his buddies in the short term, and buy him some political clout among his base in the shorter term. The problem is, who will do those agri jobs which rely on hyper exploited labor, and why? It is going to cause mayhem for masses of workers.
But also, that is the point. He wants to crash our economy on purpose. The endgame is to force an asset bubble onto China and the EU, through a long painful global recession.
So the problem isn’t Trump, he is a symptom, an accelerant. As always, the problem is capitalism which dominates every part of our lives.
Look up “reserve army of labor”, called “surplus population” by mainstream economists, and the stupidly named “Mara-Lago accords.”
I’m not so sure… Crops are going unpicked and that isn’t being solved with increased wages. If Trump does his plan allow farms to treat the remainder workers as serfs we get the worse of both worlds: not enough labor to stabilize food prices and an enslaved work force.
I also have an inkling in that direction too, and I’m just not an economist. But when he says deporting immigrants will raise inflation, he is saying it will raise wages based on these same mechanics
Sooo you are saying the guy that’s pulling the trigger isn’t to blame? gtfo
Go ahead and blame him, fuck this guy. I want to see him Moussolini’d. But getting rid of him won’t fix the problems. Most of his regressive reforms will stay in place, and continue to worsen, if only at a slower pace.
Maybe try not to assume the dumbest possible interpretation of what someone is saying? Or whatever, idrc
4%? Based on some of the food prices I’ve seen it’s easily 60% over the past 365 days.
Oh right, the magic “you can’t count food alone” or energy, or housing, or anything that really matters.
My spouse told me a store was having a “sale” on 2 liters of soda, for $4.29. That has to be higher than I’ve ever heard. I don’t by Coke often but if I was buying a 2 liter $1.99 was expensive a couple years ago. Products like that have to be at 30%+ inflation.
You can’t have inflation, if you stop collecting inflation data. *taps forehead *
worked out well for Argentina and Greece… /s
It’s going to be difficult to decide how much inflation comes from which bad policy, because there are multiple.
- Deportations (less production due to workforce reduction)
- Import taxes on finished goods (less market supply locally)
- Import taxes on industry inputs (less production locally)
- Forcing inefficient foreign investment (monetary oversupply for impacted sectors)
Release the Trump/Epstein files
Where I live (Philly suburbs) you always used to see people playing organized soccer on all the local fields early Sunday mornings yelling in Spanish. Now those fields are always empty.
I wouldn’t be out in public unless I had to if I were a Latino.
I passdd through Times Square yesterday. Weekend during summer. Usually packed with teens families and tourists. It was nearing pandemic levels of empty.
No one is spending
I’m sure he’ll pull out that sharpie, especially since that’s when J Pow can be legally fired.
So unless they remove Powell, Trump isn’t getting his rate cut.
And they don’t have the power to do that
Who wants to bet? I’ve got $100 says it goes above 4% by 6/30/26. Of course that $100 will only be worth about $94.
I wouldn’t bet against economists.
They’ll change the calculation and not allow you to change your wager.
i’m an economist (not a good one) and I’m betting fortune’s economist is way undershooting
That’s all?
